What next.
A successful Tory conference? Lets admit it, its not going to be unsuccessful. Cameron is not about to wrongly read the situation. He knows how to grab at the public's heartstrings, and he's done it all before.
So what can Labour take from conference season? Well, firstly, the party doesn't hate Gordon. They're still worried, and still need convincing. A continuance of the last 3 months will not do. But they are there. And so is the Labour vote. Polls have shown some recovery (between 7 and 9 points recovered, better than nowt) The country hasn't gone Tory. In some polls, they trust GB and AD more than DC and GO, on the economy. [I find GO distinctly distrustful]
Labour hasn't collapsed, people will vote Labour again. This is not the end of Labour as a viable force in British politics as some rather melodramatic commentators have put it
While the economy is still precarious, moves against Gordon won't happen. I think we've pretty much learnt, the public doesn't like disunity. We stand together or nothing. So if the economy picks up...then we'll be fighting the 'change' ticket again. I don't see Labour winning this. Even with a new leader. We can limit the damage, maybe even a hung parliament. Depends on the Lib Dems too. Where its Labour vs Lib Dem, like in my constituency, can Cloggy get out of the wilderness? While its a two horse race, I don't see it. [ not with my local candidate]
In my limited experience. As a strategy. Keep GB until late 2009 at least. Show strength and experience. If, by then the scrutiny of the Tories has revealed some suprises, call an election. Otherwise, Brown should step down, hopefully without being pushed. New caretaker leader until May 2010. I really dislike getting rid of leaders. It looks panic-y, vicious and in government, turns everything to shit. The Tories don't get any scrutiny, all the focus is on a collapsing government. No one listens to policy. But then the same can be said if you have a leader 20 pts down in the polls.
OOOO this is a learning curve for me. All very interesting, if depressing. Hopefully by the time I leave Uni, the cycle will be back round for Labour, and we can start afresh. Can't wait for some new blood in parliament.
A successful Tory conference? Lets admit it, its not going to be unsuccessful. Cameron is not about to wrongly read the situation. He knows how to grab at the public's heartstrings, and he's done it all before.
So what can Labour take from conference season? Well, firstly, the party doesn't hate Gordon. They're still worried, and still need convincing. A continuance of the last 3 months will not do. But they are there. And so is the Labour vote. Polls have shown some recovery (between 7 and 9 points recovered, better than nowt) The country hasn't gone Tory. In some polls, they trust GB and AD more than DC and GO, on the economy. [I find GO distinctly distrustful]
Labour hasn't collapsed, people will vote Labour again. This is not the end of Labour as a viable force in British politics as some rather melodramatic commentators have put it
While the economy is still precarious, moves against Gordon won't happen. I think we've pretty much learnt, the public doesn't like disunity. We stand together or nothing. So if the economy picks up...then we'll be fighting the 'change' ticket again. I don't see Labour winning this. Even with a new leader. We can limit the damage, maybe even a hung parliament. Depends on the Lib Dems too. Where its Labour vs Lib Dem, like in my constituency, can Cloggy get out of the wilderness? While its a two horse race, I don't see it. [ not with my local candidate]
In my limited experience. As a strategy. Keep GB until late 2009 at least. Show strength and experience. If, by then the scrutiny of the Tories has revealed some suprises, call an election. Otherwise, Brown should step down, hopefully without being pushed. New caretaker leader until May 2010. I really dislike getting rid of leaders. It looks panic-y, vicious and in government, turns everything to shit. The Tories don't get any scrutiny, all the focus is on a collapsing government. No one listens to policy. But then the same can be said if you have a leader 20 pts down in the polls.
OOOO this is a learning curve for me. All very interesting, if depressing. Hopefully by the time I leave Uni, the cycle will be back round for Labour, and we can start afresh. Can't wait for some new blood in parliament.
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